Blog

by Sandra Olmsted

Predicting the Oscars is like throwing darts into the future without any inkling of how the winds of zeitgeist will be blowing by the final day that Academy members cast their ballots. With the surge in really meaty roles for women, will it be the year of women and the women’s film? Will the old status quo of the male-dominated industry vote as it always had and ignore the work of women? Will the complicated Oscar voting process allow the best to rise to the top and win? How does one define best in a matchup between such diverse films, performances, written roles, and accomplishments?

I’ll take a stab into the nebulous black hole of Oscar predictions, but don’t quote me afterward because that old zeitgeist is an odd nor’easter right now, and the field of films is exquisite, elegant, and thought-provoking.

 

 

 

BEST PICTURE

 

“Call Me by Your Name” – In a year when relationships between older men and underage or coming of age people, including some teenage boys, have come to light, the Academy voters might shy away from this title despite the beauty and style of the acting, directing, and writing.

“Darkest Hour” – This essentially one-man show about Churchill, during Dunkirk and when England desperately needed a powerful ally, is a mesmerizing biopic; however, it is on Gary Oldman’s performance that most of the film’s success rests. The editing and cinematography also lend quite a hand in telling his story.

“Dunkirk” – As far as war pictures go, this one gets inside the events of Dunkirk with an unusual and non-chronological timeline which left some viewers dissatisfied; however, this reviewer loved it once I caught on and saw it a second time.

“Get Out” – A solid film which points up social and institutional racism; however, it is a horror film, and if a horror film wins, the smart money is on another one.

“Lady Bird” – As a coming of age film which presents a female spin on the genre, the film offers an engagingly accurate portrayal of the complexities of mother-daughter relationships.

“Phantom Thread” – By far the strangest and most disturbing characters and relationships portrayed in all the films up for this award, including the one in which a woman falls hopelessly in love with an amphibian.

“The Post” – Having seen this film three times now, I find something new each time. The main character, who owns and runs a major newspaper by default, finding her voice and standing up to the men who bully and control her, is moving, which puts this movie in contention for the win.

MY PREDICTION: “The Shape of Water”…While the love story between a mute woman and an amphibious man-creature, who is about to be vivisected by the monstrous government wonk, is compelling, the director also brings his full-on game to what is easily a masterpiece of filmmaking.

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”… After watching this transplanted Greek tragedy a third time, I find I am more and more impressed by this film. The dialogue is comedic and dark, the irony thick, and the underlying humanity of the angry, depressed, scared, and/or abused folks in this small town keeps peeping out at unexpected moments.

By rights, Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” should win because it is masterpiece and beautiful, and if it doesn’t it will probably be “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” that wins. The third possibility is the latter two films split the vote and “The Post” takes Best Picture.

 

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

 

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

MY PREDICTION: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Every one of these roles for women is meatier than have been on the screen in quite some time, and it is about time.  Every one of these performances and actresses deserves kudos; however, only one can take Oscar home. Despite the power and sophistication of Hawkins, as she portrays a mute cleaning lady and conveys so many emotions. and despite the emotional depth of Ronan’s teenager coming to terms with the hard knocks of life and loving your family and friends despite their flaws, I think McDormand, an angry, grieving mother who is mostly angry at herself and lashing out at everyone else, is the powerhouse performance that will win Best Actress. Not a loser in the bunch really, and they are all worth seeing.

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

MY PREDICTION: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

While Blige and Janney are fabulous, Metcalf’s performance in “Lady Bird” stands out in this tight field, and I think she will take home the Oscar.

 

 

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

MY PREDICTION: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”       

Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”                                         

Although it is another tight field with many stunning performances, Oldman’s Winston Churchill stands above the rest for the sheer power and stamina of his portrayal of a man whose force of will save his nation and perhaps the world. Of course, Day-Lewis might get the Oscar simply because he claims this is his last role, or other winds of the zeitgeist may propel another actor to win, stealing Oldham’s Oscar. The fortunes and fates as they may be, Oldman is long overdue for an Oscar, and Academy voters might go for that.

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”

Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”

MY PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Two deserving actors nominated from the same film usually mean neither will take Oscar home; however, all the actors and their roles could win by virtue of zeitgeist alone. While Rockwell’s performance as the angry, racist cop who changes will probably take the Oscar, Dafoe is a close second for his role as the forthright and compassionate manager of a seedy motel near Disney World.

 

 

DIRECTOR

“Dunkirk” Christopher Nolan

“Get Out” Jordan Peele

“Lady Bird” Greta Gerwig

“Phantom Thread” Paul Thomas Anderson

MY PREDICTION: “The Shape of Water” Guillermo del Toro

Again, there is not a slacker in this bunch. Each director has shown expert skill in making their films. Peele’s foray into serious drama in the guise of a horror film is powerful. Nolan’s war film hits all the marks for the genre’s conventions without feeling anything but new. Anderson’s dark, disturbing tale is solidly directed. The field, however, comes down to Gerwig and del Toro, and I have to say that as much as a woman winning Best Director means to me personally, I’m a fan of del Toro’s work, and “The Shape of Water” shows how his genius has matured to produce such an exquisite, haunting fairy tale.

 

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“The Big Sick” by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani

“Get Out” by Jordan Peele

“Lady Bird” by Greta Gerwig

“The Shape of Water” by Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro

MY PREDICTION: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” by Martin McDonagh

While I would like to see Peele’s thought-provoking work on “Get Out” acknowledged, and I would be equally happy to see Gerwig take home at least one Oscar for her brilliant “Lady Bird,” by rights, the Best Original Screenplay Oscar should go to the masterful writing by McDonagh for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

 

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“Call Me by Your Name” by James Ivory

“The Disaster Artist” by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber

“Logan” by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold

“Molly’s Game” by Aaron Sorkin

MY PREDICTION: “Mudbound” by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Another tough field with strange headwinds emanating from the zeitgeist, I think both Sorkin for “Molly’s Game” and Williams and Rees for “Mudbound” stand a good chance of taking Oscar home because I don’t think the industry is going to flame any fires by voting for the very well done script about a touchy subject in Ivory’s “Call Me by Your Name.” Honoring “Mudbound” gives the Academy an opportunity to honor a woman writer and an African American; furthermore, the script is solid and movingly written, meaning it deserves the Oscar on its own merit.

 

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer

“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

MY PREDICTION: “The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat

While Burwell uses music in wry and interesting ways in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Desplat’s work in “The Shape of Water” is a notch above with his stunning mix of humor, romance, and pathos.