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Oscar Predictions for February 24:
Cloudy Crystal Ball and Broken Time Machine
By Sandra Olmsted
Anyone who nails predicting the Academy Awards this year will have to be a psychic or a time traveler. Since my crystal ball is cloudy and my time machine on the fritz, I hope I hit at least a few of the major ones discussed here. First, let me say all the nominees have earned their nominations by giving the public exceptional work to enjoy and to make us think about our county, our diversity, and our history.
The Best Supporting Actor Nominees are Mahershala Ali in ‘Green Book’; Adam Driver in ‘BlacKkKlansman’; Sam Elliott in ‘A Star Is Born’; Richard E. Grant in ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’; and Sam Rockwell in ‘Vice.’ This is a tough field to predict because their political, equality, and loyalty issues at play. Sam Elliott could win because of his body of work and having not been nominated before. However, Mahershala Ali or Richard E. Grant, because their roles illuminate the plight of minorities, may have an advantage, or the two may cancel each other out by splitting the vote. ‘Vice’ being so hotly on the edge of the political controversy may be problematic for Sam Rockwell winning. I am kind of feeling that this is Spike Lee’s year, and I’m leaning toward Adam Driver winning with Elliott as a solid possibility because honoring him would make it an easier vote for the Academy members in this field full of splits.
Usually Best Supporting Actress is hard to predict; however, maybe not this year. The nominees are Amy Adams in ‘Vice,’ Marina de Tavira in ‘Roma,’ Regina King in ‘If Beale Street Could Talk,’ and Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in ‘The Favourite.’ Picking between the performances of Stone and Weisz will be difficult, and the split vote will probably cost them both the Oscar. Adams was good but the role itself offered little range for her abilities. I think it is down to Tavira or King. Since Regina King has a solid body of work and no Oscar yet, I think it will go to her over Tavira, who is not a Hollywood insider comparatively speaking.
The Best Actor race between Christian Bale in ‘Vice’; Bradley Cooper in ‘A Star is Born’; Willem Dafoe in ‘At Eternity’s Gate’; Rami Malek in ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ and Viggo Mortensen in ‘Green Book’ is also tough. Despite the controversy of ‘Vice,’ Bale’s performance stands out — as does Malek’s, each for portraying and embodying a real person, which may split the vote. Dafoe, who has four nominations and no Oscar, may get the Oscar if the Academy goes nostalgic and honors his body of work. Mortensen has the advantage of ‘Green Book’ being a popular, historically enlightening, and ultimately uplifting film. Cooper, on the other hand, has the disadvantage of being a first time director of a 3rd remake for he did not get a directing nod. The Academy may not give him the Best Picture Oscar yet could send him home with the Best Actor statue. I have a feeling that either Dafoe or Mortensen will go home with the Oscar in this category, which doesn’t mean that Copper will get the Best Picture one.
The Best Actress Nominees are Yalitza Aparicio in ‘Roma’; Glenn Close in ‘The Wife’; Olivia Colman in ‘The Favourite’; Lady Gaga in ‘A Star Is Born,’ and Melissa McCarthy in ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’ — another interesting field. Colman portrays a real person although not one people know. McCarthy earned this Oscar nod for a performance that is out of the ordinary for her body of comedy work; however, the Academy may be wondering if it is a one-off and take a wait and see approach. My take on the ‘A Star is Born’ redux is that it offers nothing new over the 1976 version and Gaga’s performance channels Barbra Streisand’s in the earlier version rather than creates a new one. I rather like either Aparicio because she is the first indigenous origin Mexican actress to be nominated or Close for her role which illuminated the plight some women suffer for their husbands. Close also has seven nominations and no Oscar. I kind of think the nostalgia factor is going to play in her favor.
Best Director and Best Picture used to always go to the same film; however, sharing the wealth of Oscars seems to be the trend recently, and I expect that the Oscar will get split between two films. The Best Director nominees are Spike Lee for ‘BlacKkKlansman’; Pawe? Pawlikowski for ‘Cold War’; Yorgos Lanthimos for ‘The Favourite’; Alfonso Cuarón for ‘Roma,’ and Adam McKay for ‘Vice.’ Pawlikowski, Lanthimos, and Cuarón are foreign directors although Cuarón a little less so, and his film is a personal narrative. However, Cuarón’s film is also a Netflix release, which won’t necessarily play in his favor. I think Cuarón is going to get the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar instead. Also, ‘The Favourite’ may be a little too explicit for Academy, which has tended to vote a tad conservative when it comes to sex. I think the race for Best Director comes down to Lee for ‘BlacKkKlansman’ and McKay for ‘Vice’ with the Academy picking giving Lee a long-over-due Oscar over McKay’s controversial ‘Vice.’ Although McKay could win because ‘Vice’ points to a threat to the nation and Hollywood is at its core very patriotic. Granted, not everyone will see Hollywood that way, and they should look at Hollywood history more closely.
Best Picture is a crowded field. The Best Picture Nominees are ‘Black Panther,’ ‘BlacKkKlansman,’ ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ’The Favourite,’ ‘Green Book,’ ‘Roma,’ ‘A Star Is Born,’ and ‘Vice.’ If Lee gets Best Director, I think Best Picture may go to someone else. I don’t think “Black Panther’ will win because is it the first time a superhero picture has been nominated although it will take home other Oscars for costumes, makeup, special effect, etc. ‘The Favourite,’ ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ and ‘Roma’ are foreign made, and foreign-made films rarely win Best Picture. ‘A Star is Born’ has its problems because it is too close of a remake to the 1976 version and doesn’t measure up to the two earlier versions. ‘Vice’ will probably take home other awards for Editing especially and also acting maybe and screenplay possibly. I think the real contest is between ‘BlacKkKlansman’ and ‘Green Book.’ I think ‘BlacKkKlansman’ is the better of the two films; however, a Directing Oscar for Lee seems more likely than a Best Picture, ‘Green Book’ is a more positive film and may not get other Oscars and could win Best Picture for likeability alone. There is the off chance that Lee could go home with both the directing and Best Picture Oscar, which would be a deserved honor.
Anyone who nails predicting the Academy Awards this year will have to have a well-tuned crystal ball or fabulous time machine because the politics of the nation will influence the Academy members’ voting choices and the makeup of the Academy has changed in the last few years. I think the Academy is going to play it safe this year, vote nostalgic, and honor those who have been passed over and yet have a body of work, which deserves recognition. In process, the Academy can also address the diversity issues by honoring Regina King in ‘If Beale Street Could Talk,’ Spike Lee’s directing, and his film, ‘BlacKkKlansman,’ and these artists can know that they deserved the Oscar, too. All will be revealed on Sunday, Feb. 24 when the Oscars air LIVE on ABC at 7 p.m. CST. As in years past, the ceremony will take place at the Dolby Theatre in the heart of Hollywood.
